Will James Comey be arrested before Jan 2027?

The Yes position offers an exceptionally high implied yield of 532.7%, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial tail risk despite the modest 22¢ price and relatively short 258-day timeframe. Volume is notably thin at $12.5 over 24 hours against $145K open interest, indicating low liquidity that could amplify price swings—the recent 6¢ rise from 15¢ over seven days may reflect outsized positioning rather than fundamental shifts. The 5¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest this is a speculative contract where conviction remains low, though the 532.7% yield on the Yes side reflects genuine uncertainty about potential legal developments.

Resolution rules

If James Comey is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade