Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?

The market has experienced significant downward price pressure, dropping 11 cents over seven days to 24¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment about a measles surge despite the extremely asymmetric 449.8% implied yield on the Yes side. Liquidity is moderate at $53,693 open interest with tight 1¢ spreads, but the 323% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index of 3 indicate this contract experiences sharp moves around information events. The 257-day time horizon until resolution provides ample runway for price discovery, though the current 24% probability appears to price in relatively optimistic disease control assumptions given measles' historical volatility and recent global resurgence patterns.

Resolution rules

If the number of measles in 2026 is above , then the market resolves to Yes.

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