Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive acti.... This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,561 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,561 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 687.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—a classic sign of thin markets where small positions can distort pricing—while the 7-cent spread represents 29% of the mid-price, further indicating poor market depth. The recent price decline from 19¢ to 17¢ over seven days, combined with the very specific resolution criteria (explicit reference required, not just tariff schedule inclusion), suggests limited near-term catalyst expectations despite the long 259-day timeframe.
Resolution rules
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-CAN yes 100