Will HIT ME HARD AND SOFT be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will HIT ME HARD AND SOFT be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the d.... This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $26 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.

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4¢
Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $26·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
KXTOPALBUMRUNNERUPUSA-26-HIT

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $26 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 3,393% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of minimal liquidity rather than genuine edge—such yields typically appear when tiny positions create wide spreads on low-conviction markets. With 258 days until expiry and a neutral regime, the market lacks the trading activity needed to establish a credible probability for whether Billie Eilish's album maintains top-2 status through 2026.

Resolution rules

If HIT ME HARD AND SOFT is the #2 most streamed Album on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3457.4%
IY (No) 6.0%
Adj IY 1729%
CRI 24
Overround -0.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)3457.4%
IY (No)6.0%
Adj IY1729%
CRI24
Overround-0.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:23:06 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXTOPALBUMRUNNERUPUSA-26-HIT yes 100

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