Will HIT ME HARD AND SOFT be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
10 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
209 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will arirang be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will debí tirar más fotos be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will dandelion be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will the great divide: the last of the bugs be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 6
will iceman be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 7
will kpop demon hunters (soundtrack from the netflix film) be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
KXTOPALBUMRUNNERUPUSA-26-KPO
Cluster 8
will the art of loving be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 9
will the life of a showgirl be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 10
will with heaven on top be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This market asks whether Billie Eilish's 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' will finish as the second-most streamed album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped USA Top 10 Albums list when released in early December 2026. At 11%, the low probability reflects that reaching the #2 slot requires both sustained streaming dominance through late 2026 and competitive dynamics against other major releases. The album released in May 2025, so its trajectory is already established; the question hinges on whether it maintains streaming velocity and avoids displacement by newer releases in the year's final months. The main drivers are the album's current streaming position relative to competitors and the volume of competitive releases between now and year-end. The resolution depends entirely on Spotify's December 2026 Wrapped data release, which typically occurs in early December.
- ›Current streaming performance of 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' relative to other albums in the USA through mid-2026 determines baseline momentum
- ›Volume and commercial strength of new album releases from major artists between May and November 2026 affects competitive pressure
- ›Historical patterns showing how the #2 slot typically concentrates streaming or spreads across multiple albums
- ›Album longevity trends: whether year-old releases tend to maintain top-10 positions or get displaced by newer content
- ›Billie Eilish's touring activity and promotional efforts for the album through fall 2026 could influence streaming engagement
What moved the line
- Jun 3DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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