Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS be the #1 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS be the #1 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the d.... This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2214.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues the probability relative to the No side's 9.0% yield.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2214.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues the probability relative to the No side's 9.0% yield. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $5,312 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted spread potentially unreliable and the price vulnerable to manipulation or stale data. With 258 days to expiry and a recent 7-day decline from 7¢ to 6¢, the market appears to be pricing in extremely low odds for what would need to be an exceptionally successful album release, though without context on the artist's current popularity or release plans, the fundamental probability remains difficult to assess.
Resolution rules
If DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS is the #1 most streamed Album on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPALBUMSPOTIFYUSA-26-BAD yes 100