Will I’m The Problem be the #1 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
102 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will i’m the problem be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will debí tirar más fotos be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will petal be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This prediction asks whether 'I'm The Problem' will be the most-streamed album on Spotify Wrapped's 2026 USA Top 10 Albums chart when that list is released, typically in early December 2026. The 22% probability reflects moderate skepticism about this outcome. The current assessment likely factors in the album's release timing, existing streaming momentum, and competition from other high-performing albums in the market. Major drivers include the album's total streams accumulated through November 2026, release timing relative to other major albums, and overall listener engagement patterns. The key resolution event will occur when Spotify officially publishes its 2026 Wrapped data, typically in the first two weeks of December, definitively showing which album accumulated the most streams in the United States during the measurement period.
- ›'I'm The Problem' must accumulate more total streams than competing albums through November 2026, with Spotify Wrapped measurement ending typically around November 30
- ›The album's release date significantly affects streaming accumulation time—albums released earlier in 2026 have more opportunity to build streams
- ›Competition intensity from other major label releases and established artists affects the probability of any single album reaching #1 status
- ›Streaming velocity and listener retention patterns for 'I'm The Problem' relative to contemporary releases will determine its final ranking
- ›Spotify's methodology for calculating 'most streamed' in Wrapped (total streams vs. per-capita metrics) must be confirmed when results are published
Recently closed in entertainment
- What will be the highest grossing movie in 2026?last 12% · 1d
- Will Winds of Winter be announced?last 39% · 1d
- Will Beyonce release new album before Jun 1, 2027last 82% · 10d
- Will Nick Offerman win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awardslast 47% · 19d
- Will Swiped win TV Movie at the Emmy Awardslast 20% · 19d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.