Will I’m The Problem be the #1 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will the great divide: the last of the bugs be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will iceman be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will i’m the problem be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will petal be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This market asks whether 'I'm The Problem' will be Spotify's most-streamed album in the USA for 2026, as revealed in December's Wrapped release. Currently priced at 9%, the low probability reflects that a single album must compete against hundreds of releases across the entire year to claim the top spot. The main factors influencing this price are the album's streaming trajectory through 2026 and competition from established and emerging artists. Related markets show Drake at 71% to be the top US artist and Babydoll at 37% as the top global song, suggesting strong artist performance doesn't guarantee album-level dominance. The resolution date is fixed: whenever Spotify releases its 2026 Wrapped data in early December 2026. At that point, Spotify's official ranking will determine the outcome definitively.
- ›The album must accumulate more total streams than all competing albums released or active throughout 2026 in the US market
- ›Drake's positioning at 71% probability for top US artist suggests strong streaming, but artist ranking doesn't directly correlate to any single album reaching #1
- ›The 8-contract market averaging 9% indicates modest consensus confidence; no single contract significantly diverges from this price point
- ›Spotify Wrapped rankings are based on streaming data through October/November 2026, meaning late-year releases have limited time to accumulate volume
- ›Historical Wrapped data shows album #1 positions typically go to albums released earlier in the year with sustained streaming, not late releases
What moved the line
- Jun 3The Last Of The Bugs be the #1 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6The Last Of The Bugs be the #1 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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