Will So Close To What be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will So Close To What be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date .... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2685.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of "So Close To What" reaching #3 on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped chart.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2685.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of "So Close To What" reaching #3 on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped chart. The illiquid position ($49 open interest, $0 24h volume) and wide 6¢ spread indicate minimal market activity, making the pricing potentially unreliable for a niche outcome requiring both album release and top-3 placement among millions of tracks. The 19 Cliff Risk Index and 258-day timeframe to expiry add execution uncertainty, though the neutral regime suggests no obvious directional bias in current market conditions.
Resolution rules
If So Close To What is the #3 most streamed Album on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPALBUMTHIRDUSA-26-TAT yes 100