Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. The market is pricing Trump's approval staying above 43% at 43¢, implying roughly even odds, though the Yes side offers an outsized 234% annualized yield compared to 81% for No, suggesting asymmetric risk compensation.
Analysis
The market is pricing Trump's approval staying above 43% at 43¢, implying roughly even odds, though the Yes side offers an outsized 234% annualized yield compared to 81% for No, suggesting asymmetric risk compensation. Volume is thin at $22.55 in 24 hours against $9.1k open interest, and the 6¢ spread indicates modest liquidity concerns for a contract with 266 days to expiry. The recent price movement from 35¢ to 37¢ shows modest upward momentum, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk suggest the market expects relatively stable conditions through the resolution window.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 43%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-43 yes 100