Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 49% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 49% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (10%) for Trump's approval to exceed 49% during the Dec 2025-Dec 2026 window, generating an outsized 2,154% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of either severe mispricing or high tail-risk aversion.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (10%) for Trump's approval to exceed 49% during the Dec 2025-Dec 2026 window, generating an outsized 2,154% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of either severe mispricing or high tail-risk aversion. The zero 24-hour volume combined with modest $2,127 open interest and a 3¢ spread suggests thin liquidity that could exacerbate slippage, while the 266-day timeframe provides substantial room for approval dynamics to shift materially from current levels. The 16 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, indicating potential for sharp repricing as resolution approaches or new information emerges.
Also on polymarket at 50¢(Δ -42¢)
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 49%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-49 yes 100