What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 90¢ (90% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 15.9% and 1289.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a very high probability (91%) that Trump visits China within the next 260 days, yet the No side offers an extraordinary 941% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail-risk hedging demand.

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90¢

Bid/Ask 90/92¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $2,404·OI $51,764.82·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-CHI

7-day price38 snapshots · 8 regime

92¢90¢ current

Apr 884¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in a very high probability (91%) that Trump visits China within the next 260 days, yet the No side offers an extraordinary 941% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail-risk hedging demand. Volume is thin at just $1,328 in 24-hour trading against $53.8k open interest, and the 82% realized volatility combined with a 1.81 vol ratio indicates this contract experiences significant price swings despite the lopsided probability skew. The price has drifted upward 7 points over the past week (84¢ to 87¢), and with a 7 cliff-risk index, late-breaking political developments could trigger sharp repricing near expiration.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of China after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 15.9%

IY (No) 1289.3%

Adj IY 1261%

CRI 9

RV 126%

VR 3.16

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	15.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1289.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1261%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	126%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.16	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:19:13 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-CHI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →