Will Donald Trump endorse Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Donald Trump endorse Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, 2026?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing August 6, 2026. The market is pricing a 61% probability of Trump endorsing Blackburn, but the extremely thin liquidity ($3,029 open interest, $1 daily volume) and wide 8¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect deep conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 61% probability of Trump endorsing Blackburn, but the extremely thin liquidity ($3,029 open interest, $1 daily volume) and wide 8¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect deep conviction. The asymmetric implied yields—218% for Yes versus 491% for No—indicate the No side is significantly underpriced relative to its risk, a common pattern in low-liquidity markets where traders demand higher compensation for taking the less-favored position.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump publicly endorses Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPENDORSE-26SEP15-MBLA yes 100