Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

The market is pricing Trump's 2028 presidential announcement at just 4¢, implying a 96% probability he won't announce before year-end 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1,868% implied yield with only $523 in daily volume and $8,976 open interest—suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing given Trump's historical announcement patterns and the 260-day timeframe. The 7-day price movement from 6¢ to 7¢ combined with a 2.40 volatility ratio and 1,540% realized volatility indicates elevated uncertainty despite the low absolute price, while the 13 Cliff Risk Index flags potential for sharp moves as the resolution date approaches. This appears to be a contrarian opportunity where the extreme yield and low price may not fully account for Trump's demonstrated propensity for early campaign announcements.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

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