Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028
Leader sits at 21% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Election Day
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Before 2028
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
887 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day
KXTRUMPRUN-28NOV07
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPRUN-28JAN01
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXTRUMPRUN-27JAN01
Analysis
This contract asks whether Donald Trump will publicly announce another presidential campaign before January 1, 2028. At 21%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but material—roughly one-in-five probability. The relatively low odds may reflect Trump's current focus on other political activities and the early timeframe; candidates often delay formal announcements until closer to election cycles. Key drivers include Trump's recent legal proceedings, his involvement in 2026 midterm endorsements, and whether he signals 2028 intentions through statements or political positioning. The most significant near-term catalyst would be Trump's public statements regarding his political future, particularly any declaration of candidacy or explicit statements ruling out another run. Market participants are also tracking his media activity and political priorities as indirect signals of 2028 intentions.
- ›Trump's current legal exposure and ongoing cases, which could affect timing and likelihood of a 2028 announcement
- ›His pattern of political engagement in 2026 midterms—heavy involvement might suggest focus on party influence rather than personal candidacy
- ›Previous historical patterns: Trump announced his 2020 campaign in June 2015 and 2024 campaign in November 2022, suggesting late-cycle timing is typical
- ›Media statements or Truth Social posts explicitly addressing 2028, either confirming or denying intent to run
- ›The competitive Republican primary field and whether Trump faces credible challengers who force earlier clarification of his status
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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