Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 138.3% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 11.0% on No, suggesting significant mispricing or tail risk concerns about Trump's announcement likelihood.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 138.3% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 11.0% on No, suggesting significant mispricing or tail risk concerns about Trump's announcement likelihood. The 22¢ price implies only a 22% probability despite nearly three years remaining until expiry, which appears conservative given Trump's historical pattern of announcing candidacies and his current political prominence. Zero 24-hour volume combined with a $17,086.50 open interest and 3¢ spread indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information emerges.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Nov 7, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPRUN-28NOV07 yes 100