Will Trump say "Goat" before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will Trump say "Goat" before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12,207% implied yield on Yes contracts despite only 15 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12,207% implied yield on Yes contracts despite only 15 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. The price has collapsed 35% over seven days (26¢ to 17¢) while volume remains anemic at $413, indicating thin order books where small trades create outsized yield calculations. With Trump's frequent public appearances and the broad resolution criteria (including plural/possessive forms), the 19% probability appears artificially depressed and likely reflects low liquidity rather than fundamental conviction that he won't use the word "goat" in the next two weeks.
Resolution rules
If Goat, or a plural or possessive form of Goat, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-GOAT yes 100