Will Trump say "Pelosi" before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will Trump say "Pelosi" before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward pressure over seven days, declining from 69¢ to 59¢, suggesting reduced conviction that Trump will mention Pelosi in the next 15 days despite the 59% implied probability still favoring Yes.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure over seven days, declining from 69¢ to 59¢, suggesting reduced conviction that Trump will mention Pelosi in the next 15 days despite the 59% implied probability still favoring Yes. The extraordinarily high implied yields (2059% for Yes, 3076% for No) combined with minimal open interest of $2,421.46 and low 24-hour volume of $635.70 indicate severe illiquidity, making these yield figures unreliable and the market vulnerable to outsized price swings from small trades. With 1.7 information arrivals per hour and a realized volatility of 675%, this thin market is highly reactive to news flow, and the approaching May 1 expiry creates meaningful cliff risk despite the neutral regime score.
Resolution rules
If Pelosi, or a plural or possessive form of Pelosi, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-PELO yes 100