What is the current probability for "Will Trump say "Third Term" before May 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 36¢ (36% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 10 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump say "Third Term" before May 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 17380.3% and 837.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump say "Third Term" before May 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump say "Third Term" before May 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Trump say "Third Term" before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The Yes side is pricing in an extreme 8,922% annualized yield despite only 15 days to expiration, suggesting either deep illiquidity ($4.6k open interest) or genuine skepticism that Trump will spontaneously invoke "Third Term" rhetoric in this narrow window.

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36¢

Bid/Ask 18/35¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $767.25·OI $5,908.81·Closes May 1, 2026·10d remaining

KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-THIR

7-day price846 snapshots · 30 regime

41¢18¢ current

Apr 815¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

The Yes side is pricing in an extreme 8,922% annualized yield despite only 15 days to expiration, suggesting either deep illiquidity ($4.6k open interest) or genuine skepticism that Trump will spontaneously invoke "Third Term" rhetoric in this narrow window. Price has declined 5 cents over seven days (27¢ to 22¢) while maintaining a tight 3¢ spread, indicating modest but consistent selling pressure without panic, though the 1,089% realized volatility flags this as a highly speculative micro-market vulnerable to single statements or news events.

Resolution rules

If Third Term, or a plural or possessive form of Third Term, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17380.3%

IY (No) 837.5%

Adj IY 8690%

CRI 5

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	17380.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	837.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8690%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

17¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:38:16 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:23:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-THIR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →