Will Ruth Torres be the Democratic nominee for TX-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Ruth Torres be the Democratic nominee for TX-05?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $424 in open interest, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $424 in open interest, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 339.7% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated—a classic symptom of thin markets where small trades can distort probabilities—while the 6¢ spread (37.5% of mid-price) reflects significant uncertainty among the few market participants. With 564 days to resolution and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract has time for information to accumulate, but traders should demand substantial liquidity improvements before treating the current price as a meaningful probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Ruth Torres wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-05D26-RTOR yes 100