Will Everett Jackson be the Republican nominee for TX-30?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will Everett Jackson be the Republican nominee for TX-30?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry between the two sides, with the No position offering a 339.8% implied yield compared to just 12.3% for Yes, suggesting significant mispricing or that traders view an 85% probability as too high for Jackson's nomination chances.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry between the two sides, with the No position offering a 339.8% implied yield compared to just 12.3% for Yes, suggesting significant mispricing or that traders view an 85% probability as too high for Jackson's nomination chances. The $0 24-hour volume and modest $883 open interest indicate dangerously low liquidity, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading as an actual execution price. With 564 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract faces substantial uncertainty around the 2026 primary timeline, and the recent 2¢ price uptick warrants monitoring for whether it reflects genuine new information or just thin-market noise.
Resolution rules
If Everett Jackson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-30 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-30R26-EJAC yes 100