Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican nominee for TX-30?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican nominee for TX-30?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $282 open interest, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $282 open interest, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 433.5% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, while the 7¢ spread represents a substantial 39% bid-ask gap. With 563 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 7, this contract appears to be a niche position with minimal price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Sholdon Daniels wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-30 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-30R26-SDAN yes 100