Will Shelly DeZevallos be the Republican nominee for TX-38?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Shelly DeZevallos be the Republican nominee for TX-38?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. DeZevallos is priced at a negligible 4¢ with minimal liquidity ($3,380 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), creating an extremely wide 1¢ spread and an inflated 2093% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
DeZevallos is priced at a negligible 4¢ with minimal liquidity ($3,380 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), creating an extremely wide 1¢ spread and an inflated 2093% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity. The market has tripled from 1¢ to 3¢ over seven days before settling at 4¢, suggesting either thin-book volatility or a small position moving prices; with 564 days to expiry and a moderate 32 cliff risk index, this remains a speculative, low-conviction market with minimal price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Shelly DeZevallos wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-38 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-38R26-SDEZ yes 100