How high will unemployment get before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that How high will unemployment get before 2027?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. This market is pricing in only a 16% chance of unemployment exceeding 6% by 2026, despite the extreme 718.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting significant tail risk mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in only a 16% chance of unemployment exceeding 6% by 2026, despite the extreme 718.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting significant tail risk mispricing. The sharp 2-cent decline over seven days combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $301.40 and a perfect zero spread indicates thin liquidity that could amplify volatility if macro conditions deteriorate, particularly given the 267-day runway to resolution and a moderate cliff risk index of 5.
Resolution rules
If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 6%, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXU3MAX-27-6 yes 100