How high will unemployment get before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that How high will unemployment get before 2030?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 4, 2030. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 131.2% annualized return versus just 5.5% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of a 15%+ unemployment scenario despite nearly four years to expiry.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 131.2% annualized return versus just 5.5% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of a 15%+ unemployment scenario despite nearly four years to expiry. The 7¢ price movement over seven days (13¢ to 17¢) indicates recent bullish momentum, yet the $583 open interest and zero 24-hour volume reveal dangerously thin liquidity that could amplify slippage on any meaningful position. The 7¢ spread and moderate cliff risk (5/10) are concerning given the binary nature of unemployment thresholds, which can shift abruptly with policy or economic shocks.
Resolution rules
If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 15%, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXU3MAX-30-15 yes 100