Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 18¢ spread and modest $5,400 open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 18¢ spread and modest $5,400 open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges. The 39¢ price implies a 39% probability for Volkanovski to retain or reclaim the featherweight title over 259 days, with a notably asymmetric risk profile where the Yes side offers 220.7% annualized yield versus 90.2% for No. The recent 2¢ price decline from 41¢ and low cliff risk (2/10) suggest stable sentiment, though traders should be cautious given the illiquidity could make position entry or exit difficult at quoted prices.
Also on polymarket at 30¢(Δ +27¢)
Resolution rules
If Alexander Volkanovski is the UFC Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCFEATHERWEIGHTTITLE-26-AVOL yes 100