Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 51% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Alexander Volkanovski
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
Movsar Evloev
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$51
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
129 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Analysis
This market reflects a 32% probability that a specific fighter (Alexander Volkanovski) will hold the UFC featherweight title on December 31, 2026. The current leader commands nearly double the runner-up's probability, suggesting market participants view this outcome as plausible but not favored. The price is driven by factors including Volkanovski's current title status, injury history, and the competitive depth of the featherweight division. Key variables that would shift this probability include upcoming title fights scheduled before year-end, injury announcements, and performance results of challengers. The main resolution catalyst will be the outcomes of featherweight title bouts occurring between now and December 31, 2026, with any vacating, loss, or long-term injury potentially eliminating this outcome entirely.
- ›Volkanovski's recent injury history and recovery timeline relative to potential title defenses before December 31, 2026
- ›Number and timing of scheduled featherweight title fights in the second half of 2026
- ›Performance and momentum of top-ranked featherweight contenders who could challenge for the title
- ›Whether Volkanovski retains or loses the title in any scheduled bouts before the end of 2026
- ›The 15% probability assigned to the runner-up outcome, indicating meaningful uncertainty about who holds the title on year-end
What moved the line
- Aug 18Alexander Volkanovski↓3pp55→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (51% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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