What is the current probability for "Will DC Defenders be the UFL champion?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 35¢ (35% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 28, 2026. 67 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will DC Defenders be the UFL champion?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2171.2% and 135.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will DC Defenders be the UFL champion?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will DC Defenders be the UFL champion?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will DC Defenders be the UFL champion?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing June 28, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 78¢ spread and 2024.4% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true probability rather than genuine market sentiment.

██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

35¢mid

Bid/Ask 20/49¢·Spread 29¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 28, 2026·67d remaining

KXUFLCHAMP-26-DC

7-day price5 snapshots · 3 regime

21¢1¢ current

Apr 161¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 78¢ spread and 2024.4% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true probability rather than genuine market sentiment. The 0¢ price suggests near-zero conviction that DC Defenders will win the 2026 UFL Championship, though with 72 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, any late-season momentum could create sharp repricing. The stalled 7-day price action at 20¢ indicates this market has effectively frozen, likely due to insufficient liquidity to attract serious traders.

Resolution rules

If DC Defenders is the 2026 UFL Championship winner, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2171.2%

IY (No) 135.7%

Adj IY 1086%

CRI 4

Overround 0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2171.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	135.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1086%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

29¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:13 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUFLCHAMP-26-DC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →