Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 2.7%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 2.7%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (97%) that UK inflation will exceed 2.7% YoY in March 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal conviction behind the price.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (97%) that UK inflation will exceed 2.7% YoY in March 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal conviction behind the price. The astronomical 93,778.5% implied yield on the No side indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity rather than genuine market consensus, and with just 5 days until expiry and a 7¢ spread, this appears to be a stale, thinly-traded contract where the price may not reflect current expectations. The modest 92¢ to 93¢ price movement over seven days combined with near-zero liquidity raises questions about whether this represents informed prediction or simply an abandoned position.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 2.7 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (3)▼ Full indicator table (3)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 50000% |
| CRI | 13 |
| Overround | 6.4% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T2.7 yes 100