Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 2.9%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 2.9%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a 12¢ spread despite trading at 0¢, suggesting no genuine price discovery is occurring.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a 12¢ spread despite trading at 0¢, suggesting no genuine price discovery is occurring. The astronomical implied yields (962.5% for Yes, 51,763% for No) are artifacts of the illiquid pricing rather than real market expectations, and with only 5 days to expiry, any resolution is imminent. The 90¢ to 88¢ price movement over 7 days appears to reflect technical adjustments rather than fundamental reassessment, making this market unreliable for actual inflation forecasting.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 2.9 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | >100,000% |
| CRI | 9 |
| RV | 1914% |
| VR | 1.20 |
| IAR | 1.6/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T2.9 yes 100