Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.4%?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market is experiencing extreme illiquidity with only $33 in 24-hour volume and a wide 11¢ spread, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market is experiencing extreme illiquidity with only $33 in 24-hour volume and a wide 11¢ spread, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The astronomical implied yield of 11,517% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or distress selling, compounded by the sharp 7-day price decline from 55¢ to 38¢ suggesting recent capitulation. With just 5 days until expiry and the actual UK March 2026 inflation data likely already known or imminent, this market appears to be in its final resolution phase with minimal trading activity, making it unsuitable for new positions.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 3.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 75053% |
| CRI | 1 |
| RV | 807% |
| VR | 0.24 |
| IAR | 3.0/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3.4 yes 100