Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.7%?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.7%?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable. The implied yield of 100,000% on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the tiny position size rather than a genuine opportunity, and the sharp 7-day decline from 11¢ to 4¢ suggests recent price discovery in a thin market with minimal trading activity. With just 3 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 24, this contract is approaching expiry with insufficient liquidity to confidently assess true market sentiment on UK March 2026 inflation.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 3.7 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (7)▼ Full indicator table (7)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 35500% |
| CRI | 12 |
| RV | 1785% |
| VR | 0.14 |
| IAR | 0.5/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
| LAS | 0.25 |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3.7 yes 100