Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $3,791 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $3,791 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The massive 1,871% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding extraordinary compensation for tail risk, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate little recent conviction in either direction. With 259 days to expiry and a 2¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an efficiently priced contract.
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of D-Wave Quantum before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-QBTS yes 100