What is the current probability for "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 67¢ (67% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 70.5% and 290.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?. This contract trades at 67¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 70% probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by year-end 2026, but the asymmetric payoff structure reveals skepticism: the "No" side offers a 328% implied yield versus just 60.2% for "Yes," suggesting sophisticated traders see substantial downside risk despite the high headline probability.

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67¢

Bid/Ask 67/68¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $16,043.43·OI $181,235.98·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27

7-day price465 snapshots · 112 regime

89¢67¢ current

Apr 841¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing a 70% probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by year-end 2026, but the asymmetric payoff structure reveals skepticism: the "No" side offers a 328% implied yield versus just 60.2% for "Yes," suggesting sophisticated traders see substantial downside risk despite the high headline probability. Volume is modest at $8.8K daily against $165K open interest, and the sharp 17-cent rally over seven days combined with elevated realized volatility (138%) indicates recent positive sentiment shift, though the neutral regime score and low information arrival rate (0.5/hour) suggest limited near-term catalysts are driving the move.

Resolution rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 70.5%

IY (No) 290.8%

Adj IY 286%

CRI 2

RV 603%

VR 6.84

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	70.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	290.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	286%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	603%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.84	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	62.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	3.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:02:25 PM

SF edge 54.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (37)

NO +54¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +49¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +41¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +30¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +25¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →