Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Leader sits at 31% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 20, 2029
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Before Jan 1, 2028
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
852 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-27FEB
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Mar 1, 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-27MAR
Analysis
This represents the probability that the US will reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran before January 20, 2029. The current 35% probability reflects significant skepticism that negotiations will succeed, despite ongoing diplomatic discussions. The likelihood depends heavily on whether the incoming administration prioritizes engagement with Iran and whether Iran is willing to accept terms the US finds acceptable. Near-term contract prices (4% for November 2026, 7% for January 2027) suggest traders expect no imminent breakthrough, with most probability weight extending through 2028. The primary catalysts would be explicit statements from US leadership about negotiation timelines, changes in Iran's regional posture, or shifts in European support for deal terms. Resolution ultimately depends on whether formal agreement is signed and ratified, not just preliminary negotiations.
- ›US presidential transition in January 2025 and associated foreign policy direction changes
- ›Iran's willingness to engage on enrichment limits and verification protocols acceptable to the US
- ›Level of support or opposition from Congress, which must approve any binding agreement
- ›Regional stability factors including Israeli-Iranian tensions and ongoing proxy conflicts
- ›Timeline for observable progress in direct talks, which could occur before November 2026 or extend into 2027-2028
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 33% · 2d
- Will July 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)last 11% · 33d
- Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026last 86% · 38d
- Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026last 5% · 52d
- Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.4M bpdlast 90% · 69d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios
Prediction markets are pricing simultaneous 36% regime-collapse and 50% nuclear-deal odds for Iran, suggesting traders see extreme volatility and binary outcomes rather than gradual policy shifts.
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.