Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year

30-day trend

Analysis

The 63% probability reflects traders' assessment that the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement before year-end 2026. This is notably higher than the 34% average on Kalshi, suggesting significant confidence among top contract holders. The outcome depends on whether diplomatic negotiations can overcome longstanding barriers around sanctions relief, uranium enrichment limits, and verification protocols. The 2024 US presidential election outcome and Iran's nuclear program trajectory are primary drivers—an administration change could substantially shift negotiating positions. The coming months will be critical, as any major escalation in Middle East tensions or Iranian nuclear advancement could derail talks, while diplomatic breakthroughs or multilateral pressure could accelerate an agreement. Key decision points likely emerge during UN General Assembly sessions and scheduled diplomatic engagements.

• ›The leading contract price (63%) significantly exceeds the Kalshi average (34%), indicating concentration among specific traders with potentially different information or models
• ›No new Iranian nuclear deal has been reached since the 2015 JCPOA, and conditions have fundamentally shifted since the US withdrew in 2018
• ›The runner-up contract at 50% probability suggests material uncertainty—a 13-point gap indicates substantial disagreement about deal likelihood
• ›Iran's current nuclear stockpile and enrichment levels are higher than historical baselines, potentially affecting negotiation prerequisites
• ›The timeline requires agreement within approximately 8 months from the current date, compressing the window for resolving complex technical and political disputes

What moved the line

• Jun 1Before December↓11pp56→45¢ · Kalshi
• May 31Before September↓9pp40→31¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 1Before October↓9pp43→34¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 1Before November↓7pp48→41¢ · Kalshi
• May 31Before August↓6pp34→28¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds