What is the current probability for "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 54¢ (54% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 1, 2026. 102 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 318.0% and 404.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. The market has surged 58% over seven days to 64¢, reflecting recent diplomatic momentum, though the asymmetric implied yields (192.6% for Yes vs.

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54¢

Bid/Ask 54/55¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $16,456.97·OI $165,053.62·Closes Aug 1, 2026·102d remaining

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG

7-day price454 snapshots · 115 regime

75¢54¢ current

Apr 833¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has surged 58% over seven days to 64¢, reflecting recent diplomatic momentum, though the asymmetric implied yields (192.6% for Yes vs. 608.7% for No) suggest traders are pricing in substantial tail risk of a failed negotiation before the August 1 deadline. With 107 days to expiry, $179k open interest, and a tight 3¢ spread, liquidity is moderate but the extreme realized volatility of 238% and info arrival rate of 1.1 events per hour indicate this remains a high-uncertainty event vulnerable to sudden policy shifts or geopolitical shocks.

Resolution rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 318.0%

IY (No) 404.3%

Adj IY 397%

CRI 1

RV 1465%

VR 7.48

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	318.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	404.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	397%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1465%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.48	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	49.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	3.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.538

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:04:58 PM

SF edge 54.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (12)

NO +54¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +41¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +45¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +46¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +63¢thesis — DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →