What is the current probability for "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 73¢ (73% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2028. 620 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 21.8% and 159.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. The market is pricing a 73% probability of a new US-Iran nuclear deal by end-of-2027, but the extreme 166% implied yield on the No side suggests significant skepticism among marginal traders willing to bet against consensus at current prices.

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73¢

Bid/Ask 73/78¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $1,199.97·OI $5,326.28·Closes Jan 1, 2028·620d remaining

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28

7-day price74 snapshots · 42 regime

88¢73¢ current

Apr 147¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing a 73% probability of a new US-Iran nuclear deal by end-of-2027, but the extreme 166% implied yield on the No side suggests significant skepticism among marginal traders willing to bet against consensus at current prices. The sharp 7-day rally from 63¢ to 74¢ combined with extraordinarily high realized volatility (409%) and a vol ratio of 7.66 indicates recent positive news flow or sentiment shift, though thin 24-hour volume of $2,805 means this move may not reflect deep conviction across the market.

Resolution rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 21.8%

IY (No) 159.2%

Adj IY 148%

CRI 3

RV 2136%

VR 35.92

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	21.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	159.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	148%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2136%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	35.92	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.625

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:05:01 PM

SF edge 54.0¢ no

Edges (6)

NO +54¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +45¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +63¢thesis — DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime

NO +66¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +54¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →