Will Total Public Debt Outstanding for April 30, 2026 be above 39.10 trillion?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Total Public Debt Outstanding for April 30, 2026 be above 39.10 trillion?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $3,219.93 open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially stale.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $3,219.93 open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially stale. The 53¢ price has declined sharply from 60¢ over seven days, indicating recent bearish sentiment that debt will remain below $39.10 trillion, though the astronomical implied yields (2904% for Yes, 2107% for No) reflect the very short 15-day timeframe to resolution rather than genuine market conviction. With only an 8¢ spread and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be a thin, low-conviction market where the pricing may not reflect actual probability given the minimal trading activity.
Resolution rules
If Total Public Debt Outstanding for April 30, 2026 is above 39.10 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSDEBTMON-26MAY01-T39.10 yes 100