Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing April 21, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that March 2026 US retail sales will show positive month-over-month growth, with the contract trading at 99¢ and showing a dramatic 7-day rally from 83¢.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that March 2026 US retail sales will show positive month-over-month growth, with the contract trading at 99¢ and showing a dramatic 7-day rally from 83¢. The astronomical 73,097% implied yield on the No side combined with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $110 open interest suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, as the market appears to be extrapolating from historical retail sales patterns without accounting for tail risks. With only 4 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 9, this contract carries significant execution risk if actual March retail sales data surprises to the downside.
Resolution rules
If United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSRETAIL-26APR21-T0.0 yes 100