Will Luz Escamilla be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Luz Escamilla be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The astronomical 4367% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine market conviction, while the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant uncertainty around nomination dynamics. With 201 days to expiration, there's ample time for the market to develop liquidity, but current conditions make this unsuitable for meaningful position-taking.
Resolution rules
If Luz Escamilla wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 UT-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUT1D-26-LESC yes 100