Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 5 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 5 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing January 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 4535% implied yield on the Yes side largely meaningless—the spread is too wide and there's insufficient capital committed for real price discovery.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 4535% implied yield on the Yes side largely meaningless—the spread is too wide and there's insufficient capital committed for real price discovery. The 0% current price suggests strong market skepticism that Vance will cast exactly 5 tie-breaking votes in 2026, though historically Vice Presidents average 1-2 tie-breakers annually, making 5 a notably high threshold. With 260 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be a speculative niche market with minimal institutional participation.
Resolution rules
If the Vice President breaks exactly 5 ties in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPBREAKS-26-5 yes 100