Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 3 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026
Leader sits at 29% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
3
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
173 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 1 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?: 1
KXVPBREAKS-26-1
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 6 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?: 6
KXVPBREAKS-26-6
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 5 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?: 5
KXVPBREAKS-26-5
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 4 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?: 4
KXVPBREAKS-26-4
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 3 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?: 3
KXVPBREAKS-26-3
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 2 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?: 2
KXVPBREAKS-26-2
Analysis
This market estimates a 23% chance that Vice President J.D. Vance will cast exactly three tie-breaking votes in the Senate during 2026. Tie-breaking votes occur when the chamber splits 50-50 on legislation, making the Vice President's vote decisive. The current probability reflects expectations about Senate composition, legislative activity, and partisan divisions. Higher tie-breaking frequency would result from narrow Republican majorities and contentious legislation, while lower frequency would stem from larger majorities or greater bipartisan consensus. The probability will shift based on actual tie-vote counts as bills move through the chamber, with the year's legislative calendar and any special elections affecting Senate math being key variables.
- ›Current Republican Senate seat advantage or deficit compared to 50-50 split
- ›Historical frequency of Senate tie votes in comparable partisan environments (data from recent Congressional sessions)
- ›Legislative agenda intensity and controversial bills scheduled for 2026 votes
- ›Whether any Senate vacancies or special elections alter seat distribution during the year
- ›Definition precision: whether the contract counts only floor votes or includes procedural/committee tie-breaks
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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