Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 6 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 6 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable. The massive 4535% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine market conviction, while the 6¢ spread represents a 67% bid-ask gap that further signals minimal trading activity. With 260 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a speculative niche contract where the specific outcome of exactly 6 tie-breaking votes is difficult to forecast, leaving it largely abandoned by traders.
Resolution rules
If the Vice President breaks exactly 6 ties in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPBREAKS-26-6 yes 100