Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 741% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 2.1% on the No side, suggesting the 7¢ price may undervalue Beshear's VP nomination odds given his prominence as a swing-state governor.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 741% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 2.1% on the No side, suggesting the 7¢ price may undervalue Beshear's VP nomination odds given his prominence as a swing-state governor. The $81k open interest against only $280 in daily volume indicates meaningful liquidity concentration with limited recent trading activity, and the 2¢ spread is relatively wide for such a low-priced contract. With 936 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, there's substantial time for the market to reprice, though the neutral regime suggests no immediate catalyst is driving directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If Andy Beshear accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-AB yes 100