Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $63,658 open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $63,658 open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading. The 6-cent price implies only a 6% probability for Ossoff as VP nominee, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 936% reflects the massive asymmetry between the tiny premium and the long 936-day time horizon—a mathematically inflated figure that overstates realistic returns given the low base probability and high cliff risk (24). The stagnant 7-day price action (flat at 4¢) combined with a 2-cent spread indicates this is a low-conviction, illiquid niche market where the quoted yield should be heavily discounted for execution risk.
Resolution rules
If Jon Ossoff accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-JOSS yes 100