Will Pete Buttigieg be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Pete Buttigieg be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 611% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 2.5% on the No side, suggesting the 7¢ price may undervalue Buttigieg's VP odds given his cabinet experience and national profile.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 611% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 2.5% on the No side, suggesting the 7¢ price may undervalue Buttigieg's VP odds given his cabinet experience and national profile. The $79k open interest contrasts sharply with minimal 24-hour volume of just $13, indicating illiquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions without significant slippage. With 936 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market has ample time for repricing, though the 16 cliff risk index warrants caution around potential political developments that could rapidly shift Democratic VP selection dynamics.
Resolution rules
If Pete Buttigieg accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-PB yes 100