Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite nearly $40k open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite nearly $40k open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing. The 3-cent price implies a heavily bearish view on Trump Jr. as VP nominee, though the extraordinarily high 1261% implied yield on the Yes side indicates significant mispricing potential if the contract moves even modestly. With 936 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the 2-cent spread and 32 cliff risk index suggest this contract could experience sharp repricing if political circumstances shift, making it a speculative play rather than a liquid betting market.
Resolution rules
If Donald J. Trump Jr. accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR yes 100