Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 611% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 2.5% on the No side, reflecting the low 7¢ price and substantial open interest of $98,636.77 relative to minimal daily volume of $13.5.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 611% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 2.5% on the No side, reflecting the low 7¢ price and substantial open interest of $98,636.77 relative to minimal daily volume of $13.5. The 936-day timeframe to the 2028 election provides ample runway, though the 16 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful resolution uncertainty around the nomination process itself. Price stability over the past week (flat at 6¢) combined with a tight 1¢ spread indicates modest conviction in this long-shot outcome, with the neutral regime score suggesting no strong directional momentum.
Resolution rules
If Erika Kirk accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMR-28-EKIR yes 100