Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This contract is pricing Youngkin's VP nomination chances at just 6%, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 741% implied yield—a stark asymmetry that reflects both the low probability and minimal liquidity ($33k open interest, zero 24h volume).
Analysis
This contract is pricing Youngkin's VP nomination chances at just 6%, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 741% implied yield—a stark asymmetry that reflects both the low probability and minimal liquidity ($33k open interest, zero 24h volume). The neutral regime and moderate cliff risk (19) suggest the market lacks strong directional conviction, though the 1¢ spread indicates thin order books typical of low-activity contracts with 936 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
If Glenn Youngkin accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMR-28-GY yes 100