Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. Marco Rubio's VP nomination odds have declined 2 cents over the past week to 26¢, reflecting modest bearish sentiment despite over 936 days until resolution.
Analysis
Marco Rubio's VP nomination odds have declined 2 cents over the past week to 26¢, reflecting modest bearish sentiment despite over 936 days until resolution. The asymmetric implied yields—111% on the Yes side versus 13.7% on the No side—suggest the market is pricing in significant uncertainty, though the thin 24-hour volume of $503 and moderate open interest of $134k indicate limited liquidity for a market this far out. The neutral regime and low cliff risk (3) suggest this is a relatively stable positioning with no imminent catalysts driving sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
If Marco Rubio accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMR-28-MR yes 100