Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2211% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly underestimates AI's chances of being Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year given AI's cultural dominance and recent selection history (the venue selected "authentic" in 2023 and "generative AI" received substantial consideration).
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2211% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly underestimates AI's chances of being Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year given AI's cultural dominance and recent selection history (the venue selected "authentic" in 2023 and "generative AI" received substantial consideration). The $174 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the wide 5¢ spread and recent downward price movement (7¢ to 6¢) potentially unreliable signals rather than genuine market consensus. With 259 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 16, this appears to be a classic thin-market mispricing opportunity where the low probability reflects lack of trading activity rather than fundamental assessment.
Resolution rules
If AI is the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWORDOFTHEYEAR-26DEC-AI yes 100